Health demand dissertation

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Health demand dissertation

Four-step models[ edit ] Within the rational planning framework, transportation forecasts have traditionally followed the sequential four-step model or urban transportation planning UTP procedure, first implemented on mainframe computers in the s at the Detroit Metropolitan Area Traffic Study and Chicago Area Transportation Study CATS.

Health demand dissertation

Land-use forecasting starts the process. Typically, forecasts are made for the region as a whole, e. Such forecasts provide control totals for the local land use analysis. Typically, the region is divided into zones and by trend or regression analysisthe population and employment are determined for each.

The four steps of the classical urban transportation planning system model are: Trip generation determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each zone by trip purpose, as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other socio-economic factors.

Trip distribution matches origins with destinations, often using a gravity model function, equivalent to an entropy maximizing model. Older models Health demand dissertation the Fratar or Furness method, a type of iterative proportional fitting.

Route assignment allocates trips between an origin and destination by a particular mode to a route. Often for highway route assignment Wardrop 's principle of user equilibrium is applied equivalent to a Nash equilibriumwherein each driver or group chooses the shortest travel time path, subject to every other driver doing the same.

The difficulty is that travel times are a function of demand, while demand is a function of travel time, the so-called bi-level problem. Another approach is to use the Stackelberg competition model, where users "followers" respond to the actions of a "leader", in this case for example a traffic manager.

This leader anticipates on the response of the followers. After the classical model, there is an evaluation according to an agreed set of decision criteria and parameters.

A typical criterion is cost—benefit analysis. Such analysis might be applied after the network assignment model identifies needed capacity: In addition to identifying the forecasting and decision steps as additional steps in the process, it is important to note that forecasting and decision-making permeate each step in the UTP process.

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Planning deals with the future, and it is forecasting dependent. Activity-based models[ edit ] Activity-based models are another class of models that predict for individuals where and when specific activities e. The major premise behind activity-based models is that travel demand is derived from activities that people need or wish to perform, with travel decisions forming part of the scheduling decisions.

Travel is then seen as just one of the attributes of a system. The travel model is therefore set within the context of an agenda, as a component of an activity scheduling decision. Activity-based models offer other possibilities than four-step models, e. Although their obvious advantages for environmental purposes were recognized by Shiftan almost a decade ago, [3] applications to exposure models remain scarce.

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